FX muted as markets eye Polish cenbank meeting, Hungarian CPI data

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BUDAPEST — Central European currencies

were range-bound on Monday as investors looked ahead to a

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rate-setting meeting of the central bank in Poland and the

publication of key inflation data in Hungary, both scheduled for

later in the week.

The Polish zloty eased 0.15% to 4.6920, trading in

its recent range as investors eyed a meeting of the monetary

policy council on Wednesday where a Reuters poll of analysts

forecast the key interest rate to remain at 6.75%.

The National Bank of Poland has held fire at its last two

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meetings, as the argument for stable rates was boosted by data

showing a decrease in inflation in November, as well as

third-quarter GDP data that pointed to a slowdown in private

consumption.

Governor Adam Glapinski will hold a press conference at 1400

GMT on Thursday.

“We expect the current wait-and-see attitude to be

maintained, which is consistent with the market scenario and

should not translate into volatility of both the Polish currency

and treasury bonds,” Bank Millennium wrote.

The Hungarian forint was 0.18% higher and trading

at 409.50 per euro in thin trade as investors eyed CPI data due

to be published on Thursday.

“The first thing that could really move the forint’s rate

this week is inflation,” an FX trader in Budapest said.

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“If it overshoots expectations, that could weaken the

forint.”

A Reuters poll expects headline inflation to rise to an

annual 22.2% in November from 21.1% in October.

Annual inflation was now primarily driven by a surge in food

prices, where further “unpleasant surprises” could be on the

cards in coming months, the central bank said last month.

Data showed on Monday that October calendar-adjusted retail

sales edged up by an annual 0.6%, down from a 3% increase in

September as the toll of high inflation hit consumer activity in

Hungary.

In the Czech Republic, real wages fell by nearly 10% for a

second quarter as inflation eats into paychecks.

Czech central bank Governor Ales Michl said on Monday that

drop in commodity prices could signal a slowdown in the world

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economy that would help ease inflation.

The Czech crown edged up 0.04% to trade at 24.380

versus the common currency.

Stocks in the region were mixed, with Warsaw adding

1.42%, while Budapest lost 1.64%.

CEE SNAPSHOT AT

MARKETS 1040

CET

CURRENCI

ES

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

bid close change in

2022

EURCZK Czech 24.3800 24.390 +0.04 +2.02

= crown 0 % %

EURHUF Hungary 409.5000 410.25 +0.18 -9.79%

= forint 00 %

EURPLN Polish 4.6920 4.6850 -0.15% -2.15%

= zloty

EURRON Romania 4.9230 4.9201 -0.06% +0.51

= n leu %

EURHRK Croatia 7.5500 7.5495 -0.01% -0.43%

= n kuna

EURRSD Serbian 117.2000 117.31 +0.10 +0.32

= dinar 50 % %

Note: calculate 1800

daily d from CET

change

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

close change in

2022

.PX Prague 1208.42 1198.6 +0.82

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200 %

.BUX Budapes 45053.80 45804. -1.64% -11.17

t 29 %

.WIG20 Warsaw 1758.07 1733.4 +1.42 -22.45

6 % %

.BETI Buchare 12118.09 11924. +1.62 -7.22%

st 70 %

.SBITO Ljublja 1073.19 1071.5 +0.15 -14.52

P na 4 % %

.CRBEX Zagreb 1916.29 1919.4 -0.16% -7.84%

4

.BELEX Belgrad <.belex15 e>

.SOFIX Sofia 606.05 605.43 +0.10 -4.66%

%

Yield Yield Spread Daily

(bid) change vs change

Bund in

Czech spread

Republi

c

CZ2YT= ps

CZ5YT= ps

CZ10YT ps

Poland

PL2YT= ps

PL5YT= ps

PL10YT ps

FORWARD

3×6 6×9 9×12 3M

interb

ank

Czech

Hungary

Poland

Note: are for

FRA ask

quotes prices

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(Additional reporting by Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; Editing

by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)